Is the sub-2 hour marathon imminent? Don't hold your breath!
From Science of Sport!
Yesterday Wilson Kipsang took 15 seconds off the marathon world record, running 2:03:23. It triggered, as it always does, talk of how close they are to breaking the two-hour barrier. But that's very, very premature. For reasons of physiology, performance evolution, and the inter-connectedness of performances from 10km to the marathon, we are a long, long way from going under two hours.
It's not the same as for you or I, who find ourselves a few minutes outside a barrier, and know that six months of hard training and a good day will break it. This is a world where the margins are tiny - that's why we can look at the pacing strategy and the splits and comment that perhaps it was a little too fast in sections, when in reality, "too fast" means 1 second per kilometer, accumulated over 20 minutes! The precision of the physiology to run a 2:03 is extra-ordinary.
So consider for instance the progression. In the modern era, catalyzed by da Costa's breaking of Dinsamo's 1988 record, the improvements in the record are as follows:
23 seconds, 4 seconds, 43 seconds, 29 seconds, 27 seconds, 21 seconds, 15 seconds.
This record is not going to be "smashed" by anyone. Anything greater than 20 seconds is a big improvement.
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